Making India Resilient to Extreme Weather Events

Making India Resilient to Extreme Weather Events

#GS-3 #Environment #Climate Change #Disaster Management #Disaster Preparedness #Disaster Response #Infrastructure #Agriculture #Economy #Current Events #National

Key takeaways

  • India's average temperature rose by 0.7°C between 1901 and 2018, with daily precipitation extremes over 150 mm increasing by 75% over central India.
  • The central government approved Mission Mausam with an outlay of ₹2,000 crore and launched the Bharat Forecasting System in May 2025 featuring a 6 km resolution.
  • The 15th Finance Commission created separate National and State Disaster Risk Management Funds to move funding from reactive relief to proactive mitigation.
  • Targeted disaster mitigation efforts include a ₹1,000-crore landslide mitigation program and a ₹150-crore GLOF risk reduction scheme across mountain states.
  • India must adopt proactive measures including parametric insurance, catastrophe bonds, climate stress-testing, and Anticipatory Action Protocols to protect macroeconomic stability.

Why in News

  • Recurring extreme weather events have shifted from isolated natural disasters into major macroeconomic risks across India.
  • These events disrupt agriculture, industrial labor productivity, power generation networks, public infrastructure, and state budgets.
  • Transboundary events like the Nepal-Tibet glacial disaster demonstrate how regional climate hazards can produce downstream economic damage in India.
  • While weather forecasting capability has improved, India must now accurately calculate physical asset exposure, economic losses, and recovery costs before disasters hit.

Heatwaves, Warm Nights, and Humid-Heat Stress

  • India faces earlier, longer, and geographically spreading heatwaves across multiple regions.
  • Data from the Ministry of Earth Sciences indicates India's average temperature rose by 0.7°C between 1901 and 2018.
  • The warmest day temperature increased by 0.63°C during the period from 1986 to 2015.
  • When high temperatures combine with humidity, rising wet-bulb temperature blocks human sweat evaporation and creates severe humid-heat stress.
  • The urban heat-island effect and elevated night temperatures prevent physiological recovery for informal workers, construction laborers, and farm workers.

Extreme Rainfall, Cloudbursts, and Flash Floods

  • Short-duration heavy rainfall causes flash floods, debris flows, and sudden river surges in the Himalayas, Western Ghats, and urban centers.
  • Extreme daily rainfall exceeding 150 mm per day increased by 75% over central India between 1950 and 2015.
  • The 2025 Dharali disaster in Uttarkashi showed how steep slopes, loose sediment, intense rain, and blocked river channels create severe flash floods.

Riverine and Urban Flooding

  • Flooding occurs from intense rain, saturated soil catchments, sudden reservoir water releases, and encroached river floodplains.
  • Recent monsoon flooding in Assam, Gujarat, and northern states shows that normal total rainfall can produce localized destructive floods due to uneven rain distribution.
  • Cities like Chennai, Bengaluru, Mumbai, Gurugram, and Delhi face pluvial flooding because built surfaces block water absorption.
  • Urban expansion has destroyed natural wetlands, while storm drainage systems remain built for historical lower rainfall volumes.

Tropical Cyclones, Storm Surges, and Coastal Inundation

  • Cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea bring damaging winds, storm surges, and saltwater contamination to coastal areas.
  • Although overall cyclone frequency fell between 1951 and 2018, post-monsoon severe cyclonic storms increased by 1 event per decade between 2000 and 2018.
  • For instance, Severe Cyclonic Storm Montha in 2025 damaged power lines, transport routes, crops, and homes across Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu.

Droughts, Monsoon Breaks, and Agricultural Dry Spells

  • Drought is a slow-developing hazard caused by extended rainfall deficits, high heat, low soil moisture, and high evaporation.
  • Concentration of seasonal rain into fewer heavy spells creates long break-monsoon periods, causing floods and droughts within the same season.
  • During the 2023-24 Karnataka drought, authorities declared 223 out of 236 taluks drought-hit, leading to crop losses, groundwater depletion, and rural debt.

Thunderstorms, Lightning, Hailstorms, and Dust Storms

  • Local convective weather events are brief but deadly because their small geographical size makes precise localized warnings difficult.
  • Lightning strikes and severe thunderstorms caused 1,374 deaths in 2024, making them very dangerous hazards.
  • Sudden hailstorms ruin standing crops like wheat, mustard, grapes, and apples within minutes.
  • Squalls and dust storms disrupt electric grids, flight schedules, and road traffic.
  • Rough damage estimates for localized hail loss often leave farmers without adequate payout under standard crop insurance rules.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, Avalanches, and Extreme Snowfall

  • Rising temperatures alter mountain precipitation and generate new ice-related hazards across the Himalayas.
  • Glacier retreat forms expanding moraine lakes, which can breach due to heavy rain or ice slides and cause a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF).
  • The South Lhonak GLOF in Sikkim in October 2023 flooded the Teesta basin and severely damaged the Teesta-III hydropower project.
  • Heavy western disturbances cause intense snowfalls and avalanches, isolating remote mountain communities and blocking strategic transport routes.

Rainfall-Triggered Landslides and Debris Flows

  • Heavy rain increases water pressure inside mountain soils, triggering slope failures across the Himalayas, Western Ghats, and northeastern hill states.
  • The Wayanad landslides of July 2024 destroyed settlements like Mundakkai and Chooralmala following extreme rainfall on steep, altered slopes.
  • Road cutting, hill urbanisation, and dam construction increase landslide vulnerability in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and the Nilgiris.

Greenhouse Gas Accumulation and Global Warming

  • Rising atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide trap thermal energy, changing global weather patterns.
  • India's Fourth Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC calculated national emissions at 2,959 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2020.
  • Extreme weather in India is driven mainly by historical global emissions rather than domestic emissions alone.
  • This background warming acts as climate loading, making natural weather disturbances significantly more intense and damaging.

Rapid Warming of the Indian Ocean

  • The Indian Ocean acts as the primary moisture and heat reservoir for regional weather systems.
  • Warmer sea surface temperatures fuel stronger marine heatwaves, boosting evaporation and aiding rapid cyclone formation.
  • An INCOIS study revealed that the Arabian Sea recorded 40 Watch days and 20 Alert days annually between 2016 and July 2024.

Global Climate Oscillations and Intraseasonal Drivers

  • Large-scale ocean-atmosphere cycles strongly influence Indian weather patterns across seasonal timeframes.
  • An El Niño event disrupts the Walker Circulation and weakens regular monsoon rainfall.
  • Intraseasonal drivers like the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) trigger active and break monsoon cycles.
  • Favorable convective phases of these cycles concentrated heavy rainfall during the severe 2018 Kerala floods.

Himalayan Warming and Cryospheric Degradation

  • High-altitude mountain regions experience faster warming than surrounding lowlands through elevation-dependent warming.
  • Deposition of black carbon on mountain snow reduces surface reflectivity, known as albedo, and accelerates melting.
  • Rising temperatures shift snowfall to rain, melt mountain glaciers, and thaw permafrost that holds rocky slopes together.
  • These combined changes create feedback loops affecting glacier health, seasonal river flows, and slope stability.

Deforestation and Ecosystem Degradation

  • Clearing natural forests reduces vegetation cover, lowers water absorption into soils, and increases surface runoff and erosion.
  • Unplanned road cutting, rock quarrying, and slope excavation weaken fragile mountain ecosystems.
  • Loss of coastal mangroves removes natural storm barriers; the India State of Forest Report 2023 showed mangrove cover at 4,991 km², dropping by 7.43 km² from 2021.

Unplanned Urbanisation

  • Expanding concrete surfaces, paved roads, and dense buildings stop rain absorption and create high surface runoff.
  • During Cyclone Michaung in December 2023, heavy rain combined with low terrain and blocked drains to cause severe flooding in Chennai.

Atmospheric Aerosols and Microclimate Changes

  • Aerosol particles like black carbon, dust, and industrial sulfates alter incoming solar radiation and cloud formation.
  • Agricultural stubble burning, construction dust, and factory emissions alter regional weather through aerosol-cloud interactions.
  • High aerosol loads can suppress light rain, but once clouds mature, delayed condensation releases intense rainfall.

Weather Forecasting and Mission Mausam

  • The central government approved Mission Mausam with a budget of ₹2,000 crore for 2024-26 to build climate readiness.
  • The Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS) began operation in May 2025, providing weather predictions at a detailed 6 km resolution.
  • These fine-resolution forecasts allow local weather planning down to individual blocks and panchayats.

Early Warning Systems and Last-Mile Alerts

  • The SACHET portal and app from NDMA deliver targeted geographic warnings directly to citizens' mobile phones.
  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) now provides Impact-Based Forecasting to detail expected disruptions to power lines, roads, and crops.

Cyclone Preparedness and Coastal Resilience

  • Under the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP), states built cyclone shelters, evacuation roads, and strong embankments.
  • Advanced Doppler Weather Radars, offshore buoys, and INSAT satellites have improved cyclone track and landfall predictions.

Heat Action Plans and Health Preparedness

  • Disaster authorities assist cities and states in drafting Heat Action Plans (HAPs) with public cooling centers and modified work hours.
  • The IMD issues localized warnings for heatwaves and warm nights to protect outdoor workers.
  • Health agencies track heat-related illnesses under the National Programme on Climate Change and Human Health.

Flood Advisory, Dam Safety, and Urban Drainage

  • The Central Water Commission (CWC) uses satellite and river gauge data to publish seven-day advisory flood forecasts.
  • The Dam Safety Act, 2021 provides legal rules for regular dam inspections, structural safety checks, and emergency action plans.

Himalayan Landslide and GLOF Mitigation

  • The government allocated ₹1,000 crore under the National Landslide Risk Mitigation Programme for high-risk hill states.
  • A ₹150-crore National GLOF Risk Mitigation Programme covers Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh with automated sensors and early warning tools.

Climate-Smart Agriculture and Technology Integration

  • The National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) initiative promotes drought-tolerant crop seeds and rainwater harvesting.
  • Agricultural scientists prepared District Agriculture Contingency Plans for over 650 districts to guide farmers during weather shocks.
  • Digital platforms including WINDS, YES-TECH, and CROPIC use field weather stations and satellite imagery to process insurance claims quickly.

Nature-Based Solutions and Disaster Funds

  • The MISHTI programme targets mangrove restoration over 540 km² across coastal areas to shield against coastal storm surges.
  • Water conservation under Amrit Sarovar and afforestation recharge groundwater and stabilize fragile soil slopes.
  • The 15th Finance Commission set up separate National and State Disaster Risk Management Funds to finance prevention, mitigation, and resilient reconstruction.

Dynamic Multi-Hazard Digital Twin

  • India should create a National Climate-Risk Digital Twin that merges meteorological forecasts with detailed population, building, and infrastructure maps.
  • This platform must simulate combined compound hazards, such as concurrent heatwaves, droughts, and forest fires.
  • Artificial intelligence models can estimate potential deaths, asset damages, and evacuation requirements at ward and village levels.

Risk-Sensitive Land-Use Planning

  • State governments should legally restrict construction on active floodplains, unstable slopes, and natural drainage paths.
  • Cities must adopt sponge-city concepts with permeable roads and bioswales, while charging stormwater fees based on paved property area.
  • India can adapt the Netherlands Room for the River project model for major rivers like the Ganga and Brahmaputra.
  • Hazardous settlements in high-risk zones should be relocated using land-pooling mechanisms and Transferable Development Rights.

Mandatory Climate Stress-Testing

  • Engineers should design critical infrastructure like roads, bridges, power plants, and hospitals using future climate forecasts rather than old weather records.
  • Building regulations and public procurement rules should require mandatory climate resilience audits for all major public projects.
  • Infrastructure operators should disclose their financial exposure to extreme rainfall, severe heat, and land failure scenarios.

Heat-Safe Economy and Labor Protections

  • Labor laws should regulate outdoor physical work using the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index, enforcing paid rest breaks in shaded areas.
  • Urban building codes should mandate cool reflective roofs, passive cooling designs, and thermal comfort standards in public housing.
  • Power utility regulators must plan for heatwave demand spikes while cities identify vulnerable senior citizens and informal workers.

Anticipatory Social Protection

  • Governments should release disaster relief funds automatically before extreme weather hits when scientific weather triggers are crossed.
  • A national Anticipatory Action Protocol must assign clear response duties and funding mechanisms to local district administrators.
  • Early assistance can deliver direct cash transfers, extra food distribution, livestock relocation, and emergency guaranteed work under VB-G RAM G.

Layered Climate-Risk Financing

  • India needs to reduce dependence on post-disaster budget allocations through parametric insurance, catastrophe bonds, and contingency credit lines.
  • States should share disaster risks through a unified National Disaster Insurance Pool, while cities issue municipal resilience bonds.
  • The RBI Climate Risk Information System (RBI-CRIS) can support mandatory climate risk evaluations by commercial banks and insurance companies.

Climate-Proofing Rural Livelihoods

  • Agriculture departments should establish dynamic crop-switching frameworks based on real-time weather forecasts and reservoir levels.
  • Local advisory centers should guide farmers to alter sowing dates or switch crop varieties during impending droughts or heatwaves.
  • Decentralized community seed banks, fodder storage centers, solar cold chains, and mobile veterinary clinics can protect rural farm incomes.

Way Forward

  • India must connect meteorological forecasting with public financial planning, loss accounting, and physical risk management.
  • Future climate governance needs to move beyond reactive post-disaster relief toward proactive risk pricing and loss prevention.
  • By accurately pricing climate risks, India can direct investments into resilient infrastructure, protect macroeconomic stability, and safeguard vulnerable citizens.