Global Terrorism Index 2026: Trends and India's Counter-Terrorism Strategy

Global Terrorism Index 2026: Trends and India's Counter-Terrorism Strategy

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Why in News?

  • The **13th** edition of the **Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2026** was recently released. It reported a decline in global terrorism during **2025**.
  • Specifically, terrorism-related deaths decreased by **28%**, and terrorist incidents fell by **22%**.
  • However, the report warns that terrorism is becoming more concentrated and adaptive. It is also increasingly driven by digital technology.
  • These new trends create fresh challenges for global and regional security.
  • The **GTI** was published by the **Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)**. This is an independent, non-profit think tank based in **Sydney, Australia**.

Key Findings of the Report

  • The **Global Terrorism Index 2026** shows a global decline in terrorism. However, terrorism is becoming more concentrated and decentralized.
  • It is also more digitally driven and closely linked to armed conflicts. This presents new challenges for global security.
  • India has adopted a zero-tolerance, intelligence-led counter-terrorism strategy. This strategy involves strengthening laws, institutions, and technology.
  • It also focuses on international cooperation. India has shifted from a reactive response to proactive prevention, significantly enhancing internal security.

Emerging Trends in Global Terrorism

  • Terrorism is becoming geographically concentrated. Nearly **70%** of global terrorism-related deaths occurred in just five countries: **Pakistan**, **Burkina Faso**, **Nigeria**, **Niger**, and the **Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)**.
  • The **Sahel region** of Sub-Saharan Africa alone accounted for over half of all global terrorism fatalities.
  • **Pakistan** is ranked as the world's most terrorism-affected country. In contrast, **India** is placed **13th** globally.
  • Terrorism is largely conflict-driven. About **99%** of terrorism-related deaths happen in countries affected by armed conflict or political instability. This shows a strong connection between weak governance and violent extremism.
  • There is a rise in decentralized and digital terrorism. Terrorist groups increasingly use lone-wolf attacks and small, autonomous cells. They also rely on online radicalization.
  • This makes attacks harder for authorities to detect and prevent.
  • Border regions are becoming terror hotspots. More than **60%** of terrorist attacks occur within **100 km** of international borders. This allows for easier cross-border infiltration, arms trafficking, and terrorist financing.
  • Terrorist networks are highly adaptive. They are becoming more resilient by breaking into smaller groups. They exploit local grievances and quickly adjust to counter-terrorism measures.
  • A few major terror groups dominate the global landscape. These include the **Islamic State (IS)**, **Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)**, **Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)**, **Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)**, and **Al-Shabaab**.
  • Geopolitical conflicts fuel extremism. Ongoing conflicts in **West Asia** and other geopolitical tensions create conditions for extremist groups to re-emerge and new radical groups to form.

Defining Terrorism

  • There is no universally accepted legal definition of terrorism. This is because countries have not agreed on a single binding definition, mainly due to its political and sensitive nature.
  • However, most definitions share three key elements: the use or threat of violence, targeting civilians or non-combatants to create fear, and the pursuit of political, ideological, or religious objectives by coercing governments or societies.
  • The **United Nations** broadly describes terrorism as criminal acts. These acts aim to cause death or serious injury, spread terror among the public, or force governments or international organizations to act.
  • In India, the **Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS), 2023**, defines a terrorist act. It includes any act that threatens India's sovereignty, unity, integrity, security, or economic stability.
  • This can involve lethal violence, destroying critical infrastructure, kidnapping, or circulating counterfeit currency.
  • A 'terrorist act' is also defined under **Section 15 of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, 1967 (UAPA)**. Section **2(1)(k)** clarifies that 'terrorism' and 'terrorist' are understood according to this definition.
  • Therefore, any act of violence falling under **Section 15** is legally considered an act of terrorism.

Why Decline Does Not Mean a Safer World

  • The concentration of terrorism in fragile states can create a false sense of global security. Violence in conflict-prone regions often receives less international attention, even as its intensity grows.
  • Decentralized terrorism is on the rise. Terrorist organizations are increasingly relying on lone-wolf attacks and small, autonomous cells. This makes attacks less predictable and harder for intelligence agencies to detect.
  • In Western countries, **93%** of fatal terrorist attacks over the past five years were carried out by lone actors.
  • Digital radicalization acts as a force multiplier. Social media, encrypted communication platforms, and **AI-driven algorithms** have accelerated extremist recruitment and self-radicalization. This allows terrorist groups to expand their influence without direct organizational contact.
  • The conflict-governance nexus plays a role. Terrorism thrives in areas affected by armed conflict, weak governance, and institutional collapse. Here, extremist groups exploit security vacuums and challenge state authority.
  • Terror networks are resilient and adaptive. Modern terrorist organizations have evolved into fragmented, localized networks. They exploit ethnic, political, and religious grievances, which helps them survive counter-terrorism operations and adapt quickly to changing security environments.

Challenges: Terrorism's Threat to India's Internal Security

  • Cross-border terrorism and proxy warfare from **Pakistan** remain India's primary security concern. Proxy groups like **Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)** and **Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)** have orchestrated major attacks.
  • Examples include the **2001 Parliament Attack**, the **2016 Uri Attack**, and the **2025 Pahalgam Attack**.
  • The **ISI** continues to exploit religious radicalization and separatist sentiments. Additionally, the **China–Pakistan nexus** strengthens hybrid warfare capabilities against India.
  • Indian cities are vulnerable to urban terrorism. This includes mass-casualty attacks, lone-wolf terrorism, and white-collar terrorism.
  • The **2008 Mumbai terror attacks** and the **2025 blast near Delhi's Red Fort** highlight the vulnerability of crowded civilian areas. The use of improvised explosives and attacks on public spaces continue to pose significant risks.
  • India also faces internal insurgencies. These are in **Jammu & Kashmir**, the **Northeast**, and regions affected by **Left-Wing Extremism (LWE)**. Extremist groups here exploit local grievances and sometimes receive external support.
  • Cyber terrorism is a growing threat. Terrorist organizations increasingly use cyberspace for recruitment, propaganda, financing, and operational planning. The use of **cryptocurrencies** and the **dark web** complicates counter-terrorism efforts.
  • Terror financing often occurs through organized crime. Terrorism is sustained by drug trafficking, counterfeit currency, hawala networks, and arms smuggling. India's proximity to the **Golden Crescent** and **Golden Triangle** intensifies this threat.
  • India's **7,500-km coastline** is vulnerable to maritime security threats. This includes infiltration, arms smuggling, and maritime terrorism. Stronger coastal surveillance and maritime security mechanisms are urgently needed.

India's Counterterrorism Doctrine

  • India follows a zero-tolerance approach to terrorism. It rejects any distinction between terrorists and their sponsors. India also maintains that no cause can ever justify terrorism.
  • India's doctrine emphasizes proactive and pre-emptive responses. This includes preventive intelligence, precision operations, and carefully planned retaliatory actions.
  • Examples of this approach are the **2016 Surgical Strikes**, the **2019 Balakot Air Strike**, and **Operation Sindoor (2025)**.
  • The **PRAHAAR Framework** is a strategic blueprint. It formally shifts India’s internal security posture from reactive containment to intelligence-led, pre-emptive deterrence.
  • This framework mandates a 'zero-tolerance' approach. It also explicitly separates terrorism from any religion, ethnicity, or civilization.
  • India's policy rests on four distinct pillars. These have been built incrementally since **2014**: Legislative Empowerment, Institutional Strengthening, Decisive Action against Cross-Border Terrorism, and Multilateral Counter-Terror Architecture.

Pillar 1: Legislative Empowerment

  • The **Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Amendment Act, 2019**, allows the **Central Government** to designate individuals as terrorists. It also empowers **National Investigation Agency** Inspectors to investigate terror cases.
  • This act expanded the agency's jurisdiction to include cyberterrorism, human trafficking, counterfeit currency, and offenses committed abroad that affect Indian interests.
  • The **National Investigation Agency (Amendment) Act, 2019**, further expanded the **NIA's** jurisdiction. It allows the **NIA** to investigate terror-related offenses outside India.
  • It also strengthened the **NIA's** powers to attach and seize properties linked to terror.
  • Amendments to the **Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA)** strengthened the **Enforcement Directorate's** powers. It can now trace, freeze, and confiscate assets linked to terror financing, including hawala and cryptocurrency networks.
  • The **Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, 2023** (effective **2024**), defined terrorism and organized crime for the first time. It prescribes severe punishments, including death or life imprisonment for terrorist acts causing death.
  • This law also criminalizes conspiracy, recruitment, training, harboring, and financing of terrorism.
  • The **Arms (Amendment) Act, 2019**, tightened penalties for illegal arms trafficking, manufacture, possession, and sale. It also improved firearm traceability through digital licensing to curb terrorist access to weapons.

Pillar 2: Strengthening Institutions for a New India

  • The **National Investigation Agency (NIA) Act, 2008**, was enacted after the **2008 Mumbai terror attacks**. It established India's premier counter-terrorism investigation agency.
  • The **NIA** investigates and prosecutes terrorism and national security offenses. Since **2014**, the **NIA** has been strengthened with higher funding and **53 Special NIA Courts**.
  • It has also expanded regional offices and established a new **National Terror Database Fusion and Analysis Centre (NTDFAC)**. The **NIA** has achieved a global-best conviction rate of **92.70%**.
  • The **Multi-Agency Centre (MAC)** operates under the **Intelligence Bureau**. It serves as India's top intelligence-sharing platform, connecting **28 agencies**.
  • An upgrade worth **Rs 500 crore** and the launch of the **Cyber Multi-Agency Centre (2025)** have improved real-time intelligence integration and cyber threat monitoring.
  • The **National Intelligence Grid (NATGRID)** integrates various databases. These include immigration, banking, telecom, and travel information. This supports counter-terrorism investigations.
  • As of **March 2026**, **NATGRID** connects **11 Central User Agencies** and all States and Union Territories.
  • The upgraded **Crime and Criminal Tracking Network and Systems (CCTNS) 2.0 (2024)** connects police stations across India. It uses an **Artificial Intelligence-enabled** platform for seamless sharing of criminal and terrorism-related data.
  • Police Modernisation efforts from **2021–2026** have seen India allocate over **Rs 6,300 crore**. This funding is under the **Assistance to States for Modernisation of Police Scheme** and **Modernisation Plan-IV**.
  • The goal is to strengthen counter-terrorism through advanced weapons, surveillance, forensic infrastructure, and secure communications.

Pillar 3: Operations against Cross-Border Terrorism

  • After the **Uri terrorist attack**, the **Indian Army** conducted precision **Surgical Strikes** across the **Line of Control**.
  • These strikes took place on **29th September 2016**. They targeted terrorist launch pads, marking a shift towards a proactive counter-terrorism doctrine against cross-border terrorism.
  • In response to the **Pulwama terror attack**, the **Indian Air Force** carried out a precision air strike. This occurred on **26th February 2019**.
  • The strike targeted a **Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist training camp** in **Balakot, Pakistan**. This action demonstrated India's readiness for pre-emptive action against terrorist infrastructure.
  • **Operation Sindoor (2025)** was launched on **7th May 2025**, following the **Pahalgam terrorist attack**. It targeted terrorist infrastructure in **Pakistan** and **Pakistan-Occupied Jammu and Kashmir**.
  • This operation reinforced India's doctrine of swift, precise, and proportionate retaliation against cross-border terrorism.

Pillar 4: Multilateral and Diplomatic Counter-Terror Architecture

  • Since joining in **2010**, India has used the **Financial Action Task Force (FATF)** to strengthen actions against terror financing. It has also improved anti-money laundering measures.
  • The **No Money for Terror Ministerial Conference** is a global initiative. It was launched in **Paris in April 2018** to boost international cooperation against terror financing. India hosted its **3rd Ministerial Conference in New Delhi (2022)**.
  • India proposed the **Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism** at the **United Nations** in **1996**. This aimed to establish a universal legal framework against terrorism.
  • India successfully secured the designation of **Masood Azhar** as a global terrorist by the **United Nations Security Council** in **2019**.
  • **Tahawwur Rana**, who was accused in the **2008 Mumbai attacks**, was extradited from the **United States** to India in **2025**.
  • India has **Joint Working Groups on Counter-Terrorism** with **27 countries** and **5 multilateral forums**. This strengthens intelligence sharing and coordinated action.
  • **BHARATPOL (2025)** was launched in **2025**. It connects Indian law enforcement agencies with **INTERPOL** to combat terrorism and transnational crime.
  • The **Delhi Declaration** was adopted under India's Chairmanship of the **United Nations Security Council Counter-Terrorism Committee** in **2022**. It provides guiding principles to counter terrorists' misuse of drones, digital technologies, social media, and online terror financing.

Outcomes of Counter-Terrorism Reforms (2014–2026)

  • Security in **Jammu & Kashmir** has significantly improved. Terrorism and cross-border violence have declined substantially.
  • Terrorist-initiated incidents fell from **228** in **2018** to just **12** in **2025**. This reflects better security and stability.
  • Civilian and security force casualties have sharply decreased. This highlights the effectiveness of intelligence-led operations and stronger force protection.
  • Normalcy has been restored. Stone-pelting incidents have remained near zero since **2022**. Strikes and shutdowns have virtually disappeared, allowing normal public life and governance to resume.
  • Improved security has boosted development and economic revival. This includes infrastructure development, employment generation, tourism, and private investment. These factors strengthen socio-economic growth in **Jammu & Kashmir**.
  • Enhanced intelligence, inter-agency coordination, and technology-driven surveillance enable pre-emptive counter-terrorism. Authorities can now foil terror plots before they are executed.
  • Hinterland terrorism has declined. Since the **2013 Hyderabad blasts**, India has seen very few major urban terrorist attacks. This demonstrates the success of its proactive, intelligence-led counter-terrorism strategy.

Conclusion

  • India has significantly transformed its counter-terrorism architecture. It has adopted a zero-tolerance policy by strengthening legal frameworks and empowering security agencies.
  • The country has also enhanced intelligence sharing and expanded international cooperation.
  • This shift from a reactive response to proactive prevention has greatly reduced terror incidents. It has also strengthened internal security and improved public confidence.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

  • The **Global Terrorism Index (GTI)** is an annual report. It is published by the **Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)**.
  • This index measures the impact of terrorism across countries based on terrorist incidents, fatalities, injuries, and hostages.
  • The **GTI 2026** reported a **28%** decline in terrorism-related deaths. It also noted a **22%** fall in terrorist attacks during **2025**.
  • However, it emphasizes the increasing concentration of terrorism in conflict zones. It also highlights the rise of decentralized, digitally enabled extremism.
  • **PRAHAAR** is India's **National Counter-Terrorism Policy and Strategy**. It is built on a zero-tolerance approach and a seven-pillar framework.
  • This framework focuses on prevention, response, intelligence coordination, de-radicalisation, international cooperation, and post-incident recovery.
  • India continues to face threats from cross-border terrorism, proxy warfare, cyber terrorism, digital radicalisation, urban terrorism, **Left-Wing Extremism (LWE)**, terror financing, and maritime infiltration.
  • These threats require a comprehensive and intelligence-led security response.
  • Despite a decline in global terrorist incidents, the world is not necessarily safer. Terrorism is becoming more concentrated, decentralized, digitally driven, and adaptive.
  • Conflict zones, online radicalization, and lone-wolf attacks are emerging as major security challenges.